Feb 2021 Monthly Update for the Capitalmind Momentum Portfolio
Feb 2021 Returns Update
Chart shows Capitalmind Momentum Model Portfolio returns versus the NIFTY 50 and the CNX 500. Dividends have not been considered.
A quick note about return calculations in our monthly factsheets: For the monthly factsheets, we consider calendar months when calculating returns. e.g. February return = (Close on last day of Feb / Close on last day of Jan – 1). Similarly, 1 Year return = (Close on last trading day of Feb 2021 / Close on last trading day of Feb 2020 – 1). So for the 1-year calculation, we use close on 26th Feb 2021 and 28th Feb 2020. This could differ from other sources that use rolling 365 days to calculate returns, for example using Feb 26th, 2020 close value shows a 1 Year NIFTY return of 24.4% compared to our 12-month NIFTY return of 29.7%.
About February 2021, it was an uncharacteristically strong February for stocks in general, mainly because of the lack of negative surprises in the budget at the beginning of the month. The benchmark indices would have ended with double-digit returns for the month had it not been for the sharp reversal on the last trading day of the month.
The Momentum portfolio had a strong month delivering 16.5%. This is as per smallcase NAV reported here (you can click the ‘Download Chart’ link under the chart to see daily NAV values since inception). We are working on adding real-time NAV charts for all CM Portfolios right here soon.
Performance since inception
Chart shows performance (annualised returns, annualised volatility and maximum drawdown from peak) since inception in January 2019.
Reading this chart: Returns, higher the better (obviously), Volatility: lower the better, and Maximum Drawdown: higher the better, i.e. the smallest negative value, the best possible value being zero.
The Momentum portfolio tries to outperform the NIFTY while suffering lower drawdowns in corrections. The smallcase version of the portfolio has been live since Jan 2019 and has comfortably outpaced the benchmarks with lower volatility.
Summary of Feb 2021
We made no changes to the portfolio through the month.
There are 3 exits, 2 additions, and 1 increase in allocation in the Mar 1st rebalance that will be shared with Capitalmind Premium and smallcase subscribers this weekend.
Current Portfolio: Chart shows current positions with exits and fresh entries. Stock numbers indicate the order in which they were added to the portfolio. The March 1st additions are denoted as “New Entry”. The dark green dots show % return since entry into the portfolio (vertical line at zero).
Stock number denotes the order in which it was added to the portfolio. e.g. Stock 1 is the “oldest” stock in the portfolio and has delivered 105% since it came into the portfolio.
click image to get immediate access to the CM Momentum Portfolio
Outlook for March
February, which historically tends to be a subdued month for markets was anything but that this time. After a strong month, the last few days of February brought saw signs of unease in the markets as US bond yields rose to their highest level in over a year. US Treasury yields rising is traditionally a negative sign for stocks in general, and emerging market stocks in particular.
NIFTY stocks were the first to face the brunt going by the fall on 26th Feb, but this might quickly engulf the rest of the market as capital flows out of all stocks to risk-less US treasuries. But then again, the US Fed might come out with yet another statement about their intention to maintain low rates come hell or high water which might again steady stocks.
This is just a verbose way of saying we have no idea what will actually happen. We are currently fully allocated in the Momentum portfolio. If things change, we will react accordingly to reduce exposure, which is exactly what we did in March 2020.
Chart shows how CM Momentum did versus the NIFTY starting Feb 2020 to the end of March.
It only seems appropriate that we’re entering the one-year anniversary of the Coronavirus-led selloff.
We believe markets will continue to surprise both on the upside and downside. As investors, we look to learn how to manage ourselves on the rollercoaster rather than try to predict the next move. Capitalmind Premium offers not just access to equity and debt model portfolios, active strategies, and premium content, but also the opportunity to interact with and learn from a diverse community of new and seasoned investors to get better at this whole thing called investing.
This message last year shared by a member says it better than any sales pitch will.
