Markets supposedly went up today because Goldman Sachs upgraded India and told the world that it expects a Nifty target of 7,600 for 2014.
When you hear this, you think that Goldman Sachs drives our market. I think they largely pick figures up from where the sun don’t shine. It has NO idea where markets will actually go, so let’s look at its past “estimates”.
- In March 2012 (Nifty: 5,300) , it said that by March 2013, the Nifty target was 6100. Actual result: 5,600.
- In August 2011 (Nifty: 5,000), it expected that in Sep 2012, the Nifty would have hit 6,600. (Note: it sorta touched that today, in 2014). Actual result: 5,700.
- For 2011, Tim Moe of GS said the Nifty target was a phenomenal 6,800. He said this in December 2010, when the Nifty was at 6,100. Actual Nifty in Dec 2011: 4600. (Whammy!)
- They said India would grow at 6.5% in 2013. In their dreams. (Actual growth is less than 5%)
If Goldman could get things right one year ahead, they wouldn’t be telling you what their estimate is.
Just remember that when you’re itching to not be left behind. There’s a sucker born every day, and there’s a slot open for tomorrow.
