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88 ArticlesMacro

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Q4 2013 GDP Growth at 4.78%, and I was SPOT ON about the Data Fudge Last Year

In a disappointing note, MOSPI tells us that the Q4 GDP growth estimate is 4.78%, one of the lowest we have seen in the last decade. Even in the depths of the ...

India’s Quantitative Easing: 16% per year since 1997

We’ve all heard about “Quantitative Easing” in the west. The US is printing $85 billion a month to buy government bonds, mortgage backed securities and ...

Bank Credit Growth Slows and Crowding-Out Effect is Visible

Bank Credit growth as of October 5 has slumped to 15.9%, which is close to a near term low. Bank credit is all the credit that isn’t to the government, ...

GDP Data Fudge Vs. BoP: Recent Differences?

On popular demand, I post a graph of the difference between the GDP data and the RBI Balance of Payments (BoP) data. This is referencing my posts on how the Q4 ...

India *HAS* Seen Negative GDP Growth, BoP Confirms Data Fudge

In an earlier post (Has India Plunged Into Recession? GDP Data Fudge Reveals Details) I spoke of how the import-export data was likely to be heavily wrong. The ...

RBI Debases Our Currency By 15% p.a. Since 2001

Can also read: Why Gold is Such a Good Investment? And: RBI, A Substantial Contributor To Inflation? Consider the alternate explanation to inflation: It’s ...

RBI Does Piecemeal Reform on Foreigners Buying Debt

RBI has increased the limit on foreign investment in Rupee Denominated Government Bonds to $20bn from $15 bn. (And in a timely way, Dheeraj and I wrote an ...

The Macro Trumps The Micro

I write at Yahoo: The Macro Trumps The Micro You can’t buy stocks on merit anymore. You can do the most beautiful analysis about a company that owns a ...

A Simpler Version of the RBI Statement

There is no RBI Rate Cut. There is no CRR cut. The RBI, in its mid-quarter review of monetary policy, decided that the situation warranted no change in any of ...

Pre-RBI Action Notes: The Broad Picture

Before the RBI mid-quarter monetary policy review later today, let’s go through a few things. Indian Situation Growth has slowed. GDP is officially down ...