🔆 Saturday Coffee Newsletter
- Market Overview: Top Indices & Asset Classes
- Good Reads: 5 good reads on investing & finance
- Off the chart: Sell in May and go away?
- Pop Quiz: Answer and win a cool prize!
What’s up with markets? 📉📈
It was was rather flat week except for Silver which fell ~4%. Crude has cooled off nicely since its spike from Russia-Ukraine war and the impact is also showing on easing inflation numbers in India. S&P 500 and Nifty 50 too gained a little over the week.
![[Newsletter] Sell in May & Go Away, 5 Good Reads and a Quiz!](https://premium.capitalmind.in/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/8yye1-macro-markers-53.jpg)
It was a good week for Auto stocks as the index gained 4.2%. Private banks did well while PSU banks struggled.
![[Newsletter] Sell in May & Go Away, 5 Good Reads and a Quiz!](https://premium.capitalmind.in/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/ao5Qo-nifty-sectoral-indices-weekly-update-9.jpg)
Off the chart! 🚀
“Sell in May and go away,” an adage as old as time. Just as a fun exercise, we analyzed this strategy’s effectiveness in the Indian market. We’re letting charts tell most of story.
Interestingly, “sell in may” outperformed in 10 out of 23 calendar years!
But, point to point returns can be deceptive. So we look at rolling returns.
On a three-year rolling basis, the Sell-in-May plan would’ve felt better nearly 37% of the time. Shaded sections show when it would’ve been ahead of Buy-and-Hold. Considerable periods between 2004-2010 and less often after.
Cumulatively, the Sell-in-May portfolio would’ve trailed the Nifty by 0.5% CAGR over two decades. Unsurprisingly, picking an arbitrary month to sit out of a market that trends up ~70% of the time is a bad idea.
What we are reading 📝
- There are times in nature when two plus two equals ten – when two little things combine to form one huge thing. Read: Vicious Traps
- Who are the greatest investors of all time? Read: Greatest investors and the Virtues That Made Them
- Success also comes to those who stand and wait. Read: More Lessons From the Do Nothing Portfolio
- Charlie Munger has a knack for delivering witty common-sense advice. Read: What Makes a Great Investor
- Here’s a full recap of everything Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger said at Berkshire’s annual meeting Read: Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting 2023 Summary
Pop Quiz 🙋♂️
Identify the company?
An iconic international brand, loved immensely by Indian households, bites the dust. Below is the latest stock price and chart of this company.
![[Newsletter] Sell in May & Go Away, 5 Good Reads and a Quiz!](https://premium.capitalmind.in/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/Screenshot-2023-05-12-at-8.02.44-PM-600x346.jpg)
Clue 1: Most people would have a product from this company at their home today.
Clue 2: This product was marketed/sold mainly through Non-Tech Social Networking at a time when Social Network (the kind we know it in Insta/FB etc) didn’t even exist.
Clue 3: If you lost a product of this brand, you would have faced the wrath of the person who originally bought it for the household.
Identify the company.
Hit reply to this email and answer.
Question contributed by Animesh Dwivedi on Capitalmind Premium slack community.
Each week, we randomly pick one winner who gets something cool!
Last week’s winner: Alankar Ranade 🎉
Last week’s answer: Companies hit a $1 Trillion market cap
(If you’re reading this on the website and want to participate in the quiz, subscribe to the newsletter.)
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