Actionable insights on equities, fixed-income, macros and personal finance Start 14-Days Free Trial
Actionable investing insights Get Free Trial

Sugar stocks Rally, LIC IPO isn’t as sweet, Don’t gamble with investments & More



  • In trend: Sugar stocks are rallying across the market. What’s up with it?
  • IPO Insight: LIC is a huge company but does it make sense to apply when it lists?
  • War & Money: The world is hurting Russia on the economic front
  • Psychology: Trading for fun or thrill can be dangerous. How to work on this?
  • Cryptocurrencies: Basics on the most dreadful scam in cryptocurrencies – the rug-pull.
  • Pop Poll: Have you ever invested in something “extremely risky” or gambled for fun?

(Discount: We’re running a Holi special discount of 20% off across all Capitalmind products. Scroll to the bottom for details!)

Why are sugar stocks rallying? 🚀

The sugar stocks are having a sweet rally. The YTD returns of these stocks like Dwarkesh (up 72%), Dhampur (up 70%), Avadh Sugar (up 57%) have given the much-needed breather to the investors’ portfolios in these volatile times.

But why are these stocks on steroids? The answer lies in its byproduct – Ethanol.

What is Ethanol blending?

Ethanol is a biofuel obtained mainly from Sugarcane and corn via a fermentation process. Ethanol is a kind of alcohol. A variety of alcohols like Methanol, Butanol, and Ethanol are being used to fuel the ICE & Petrol engines since the 1920s. Unlike oil, this byproduct of crops is considered renewable energy.

India is the third-largest importer of Crude Oil in the world. Our oil import bill exceeds $100 Billion in 2021. India imports close to 85% of its domestic oil needs. Any increase in oil prices will directly impact our fiscal deficit.

The cause & the effect

India initiated the use of ethanol as an automotive fuel in the year 2003. Ethanol mix had increased from 1-1.5% in 2014 to 8.5-10% as of 2022. The ratio is only going to increase further.

In 2020, the government targeted 20% ethanol blending in petrol by 2030. The deadline was later changed to 2025. Five years ahead of its initial target.

The demand for ethanol was up ~9 times in the last 8 years. In 2014 the Oil marketing companies procured 30 Cr litres. This is expected to reach 1016 Cr liters by 2025.

Sugar stocks Rally, LIC IPO isn't as sweet, Don't gamble with investments & More

There is going to be a huge demand for ethanol in the next 3 years. The sugar companies are direct beneficiaries of this uptrend.

Having said that, Sugar stocks are more cyclical than sugar companies. The stock prices peak much before the earnings do. So, let’s keep an eye out for it.

5 Reasons to NOT invest in LIC IPO 🎬

LIC may not be a well-run insurance company, but it is the most trusted of them all. For the past 65 years, it has been a household name for millions in India. Life Insurance is the second-largest financial savings instrument after Fixed Deposits, and it is not an exaggeration to say LIC has single-handedly got Life Insurance at this scale.

Now, LIC is coming out with an IPO and we have five reasons why you should NOT subscribe!

Hurting the Money! 🔫

Russia Ukraine war has highlighted weapons of war that we never thought existed. While Russia threatened a nuclear action, the world has already nuked the Russian financial system.

This has created havoc for Russia and has also made other nations nervous. Every country that holds reserves outside their own territories has now realized that their money can anytime be sequestered by the US or Europe. However, there can be ways in which countries can protect themselves from such financial sanctions.

Read – Global Money, Global War

Protect your portfolio from yourselves! 💣

Markets may give you profits or not. But, they surely give you an itch. An itch to do things that may be too risky, entertaining, or involve a jpeg of an ape. This itch can be dangerous to your portfolio. So what to do about it and how to think about it?

Funny Money: Speculative Investing When the Stakes Are Low

Typical crypto scam & how to identify it 🎭

Crypto scams come in a variety of variations. But possibly, the most famous is the dreaded rug pull. These are essentially projects where the development team drums up interest in the token they created… Only to abandon the project after enough outside investment dollars have poured in.

Then the team cashes out and disappears with the funds raised. And in the end, investors are left with an asset that holds no value. Such rug pulls come in different variations and this article covers these.

What Is a Rug Pull: The Anatomy of Crypto Rip-off

Pop Poll – Money & Expectations 📩

Have you ever invested in something “extremely risky” or gambled for fun?

  • Yes
  • No

(and a follow-up question in the form that may give us “the insight” next week)

Click here to answer anonymously

Last week’s poll results 

Total respondents = 590 (our highest till date. thank you.)

  • 50% of the respondents think 50 crore is a good enough corpus to lead a full life. Although, 4% think that 10,000 crore is that ideal number.
  • Half of the respondents said that they will not be able to use all the corpus. That’s the margin of safety talking.

Sugar stocks Rally, LIC IPO isn't as sweet, Don't gamble with investments & More

Holi Sale – Everything at 20% discount!! ⚡️⚡️

If you have been on the sidelines for a discount, it’s here. Valid till Weekend (20th March 2022).

⭐️ Capitalmind Premium: Subscribe Here

🚀 Momentum Smallcase – Start Investing

🎯 Focused Smallcase – Start Investing

🛡 Low Volatility Smallcase – Start Investing

(Use code PICHKARI2022 for a 20% discount on the annual plan)

Sugar stocks Rally, LIC IPO isn't as sweet, Don't gamble with investments & More


Like our content? Join Capitalmind Premium.

  • Equity, fixed income, macro and personal finance research
  • Model equity and fixed-income portfolios
  • Exclusive apps, tutorials, and member community
Subscribe Now Or start with a free-trial