Charts: July Repeats April, Gets a 6% Return on the Nifty

With the Nifty staying firmly above 11,000 for the first time since January, the month of July returned 6%. This is the best month after April, and takes 2018 to 7.8% on the Nifty itself.

And then there’s the Sensex, which has a better return (10%) for the year.

However the broad market, the Nifty 500, has a subdued 1.7% for 2018, which is largely on the back of July’s stellar 5% returns.

It’s been a brilliant month and while valuations are high, there is no sign of anything cutting into stocks. Some QIPs for stocks like HDFC Bank (and perhaps the AMC which will debut on Aug 6) ensured that FII flows are positive – with around 2200 cr. plus, which was negative until the 28th of July.
This market remains strange to navigate on a valuation front. Of course, any one with an excel sheet and MBA degree can justify any valuation you like, and even a P/E of 28 will sound low. But India’s not growing quite as much, this quarter saw a big bump due to a lower base as last year the preparation for GST kept sales lower, and we have a (slowly) rising interest rate situation.
But in the face of prices rising up and slapping any negativity repeatedly in the face, you have to take every word of caution with a pinch of salt. I never thought I’d say that, but here you are.