The Slack Discussions
The Slack group at Capital Mind Premium has been extremely active and if you haven’t been there, pop us a note by replying to this email. (If you’re a trial member this probably sound like Greek to you; it will be available when you sign up!)
A brief summary of some of the interesting things discussed there in the last few days:
#general: Government likely to unveil new civil aviation policy next month
With long-drawn consultations now in final stages, the Civil Aviation Ministry expects to come out with the new civil aviation policy next month.
The inter-ministerial consultations on the revised draft policy are progressing and once these are completed, the ministry hopes to give the final touches and move the Cabinet for a nod.(Link)
#general: On-demand groceries app Pepper Tap to shut shop by month-end
CEO Navneet Singh has said that the team will now focus on building an e-commerce logistics company. On demand groceries app is going to shut down its operations by the end of the month, YourStory.com has reported.
The start-up stories portal said that Pepper Tap CEO Navneet Singh had confirmed the news over a phone call. (Link)
#general: Theranos – Blood sports: Pressure is mounting on a startup that has tried to shake up the lab-test market
(Link)
#general: Farmers become BPO managers in rural Mindanao town
(Link)
#general: Big Labour Reforms: Minimum Wage Will Soon Increase to Rs 10,000 p.m.
Indian unskilled and skilled workers will soon experience one of the biggest labour reforms ever finalized. In a big relief to all contractual employees, minimum wage has been increased by more than 50% to Rs 10,000 per month or Rs 333 per day.
Union Minister of State for Labour and Employment Bandaru Dattatreya said, “It is the endeavour of the Central government to make reforms in labour laws and to proceed from minimum wage to universal wage.”, adding, “In view of the apex court order, we are enhancing it first to Rs 10,000 and then we want to go for universal minimum wage,” (Link)
#general: Anti-tax evasion measures approved by EU finance ministers
Ministers agree to propose joint list of tax havens and approve plan to automatically exchange data on shell company owners. (Link)
#stocks: NSE to exclude IOB, UCO Bank from F&O segment
The existing contracts will continue to be available till their respective expiry but no contracts will be available for trading in both the securities with effect from July 1, the exchange said.(Link)
#stocks: Fav MNC Stock of Ramesh Damani & Kenneth Andrade Finally Admits Accounts Are Not “True & Fair”
Ultimately, the question will have to be asked whether Manoj Kumar, the erstwhile MD and CEO of Ricoh India, was an innocent bystander or whether he was lying through his teeth when he told the ET that “There are no accounting irregularities and there is nothing wrong with recording of sales”. (Link)
#general: Bottled Water Costs 2000 Times As Much As Tap Water
The [bottled water] industry grossed a total of $11.8 billion on those 9.7 billion gallons in 2012, making bottled water about $1.22/gallon nationwide and 300x the cost of a gallon of tap water,” Colas says. “If we take into account the fact that almost 2/3 of all bottled water sales are single 16.9oz (500 mL) bottles, though, this cost is much, much higher: about $7.50 per gallon, according to the American Water Works Association. That’s almost 2,000x the cost of a gallon of tap water and twice the cost of a gallon of regular gasoline. (Link)
@SJosephBurns: This is the Dow. Analysed over the last 88 years
#stocks: TCS features in UK’s Times Top 50 employers for women list
India’s largest IT services firm TCS has been recognised as one of the UK’s leading employers for women in a list published by The Times.
Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) had a formal Diversity & Inclusion corporate function since 2010 designed to provide strategic guidance and support for diversity programmes across the globe. TCS employs over 100,000 women globally, a third of its total workforce. (Link)
#macronomics: Is George Soros right about the coming crash in China?
While China’s first-quarter growth figures pleased some analysts enough to upgrade their forecasts, George Soros was not impressed. Doubling down on his earlier comments that a hard landing for China was inevitable, he now says China’s is facing a financial crisis similar to the U.S. in 2008. (Link)
#general: SEBI flags concern on brokers shutting shop
In a meeting with representatives of stock brokers on Thursday, the Securities and Exchange Board of India has raised concern over loss-making brokers operating in the cash segment.
The regulator discussed the data which showed how a high compliance cost had forced 85 per cent of brokers having capital between Rs 1 crore and Rs 10 crore to shut shop. The number of brokers in the cash segment has halved in the past eight months — declining volumes in this segment and the high compliance costs have led to 3,187 brokers shutting shop, shows market data. (Link)
#general: how old monk went from India’s star to another has-been
(Link)
#stocks: Reliance buys Iranian oil after six-year hiatus
Reliance Industries has bought crude oil from Iran after a 6-year break and is looking to strike a long-term fixed quantity deal, post lifting of sanctions.
RIL, which operates the world’s biggest refining complex at Jamnagar in Gujarat, is looking at quickly ramping up purchases to the earlier levels of about 5 million tonne
s a year. (Link)
#stocks: Investors interested in acquiring stake in co, projects: SunEdison India
Facing liquidity crunch, renewable energy firm SunEdison India on Sunday said it is receiving a “lot of interest” from investors for a possible stake sale in the company as well as in its projects in the country.
SunEdison India is a subsidiary of US-based energy major SunEdison, which last week filed for bankruptcy protection in the Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of New York. (Link)
#general: Barron’s Big Money Poll: The Pros Turn Cautious
Only 38% of the money managers in our latest survey are bullish on the outlook for stocks. And they think Clinton will beat Trump. (Link)
#general: Heat Effect: City Runs Out Of Coolers, ACs
Once known as the air-conditioned city of the country, today heat-struck Bengalureans are making a beeline for cooling appliances. Air-cooler and air-conditioner sellers and rental owners are laughing all the way to the banks. And most of them have run out of pieces. (Link)
#stocks: Saving Private Flipkart
Flipkart is in the middle of a crisis of its own making—stalled growth compounded by management churn and the imminent possibility that it will cede the top slot to Amazon. But it’s not too late to change its strategy. (Part 1) (Part 2)
#general: The Tokyo Whale Is Quietly Buying up Huge Stakes in Japan Inc.
While the Bank of Japan’s name is nowhere to be found in regulatory filings on major stock investors, the monetary authority’s exchange-traded fund purchases have made it a top 10 shareholder in about 90 percent of the Nikkei 225 Stock Average, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg from public data. It’s now a major owner of more Japanese blue-chips than both BlackRock Inc., the world’s largest money manager, and Vanguard Group, which oversees more than $3 trillion. (Link)
#general: Chit fund firms duped depositors of Rs.80, 000 crore: CBI estimates
Central Bureau of Investigation officials say the amount is likely to be higher than the initial estimate as investigations are underway. (Link)
#macronomics: Fitch: Chinese Steel Price Surge Not Sustainable
The rapid increase in Chinese steel prices so far this year is not sustainable, as it is largely due to a seasonal pick-up in construction and elevated speculation in the steel futures market, says Fitch Ratings. Fitch expects supply of steel to increase as rising prices lead to capacity resumption, but without a sustainable rise in demand. This will put significant pressure on steel prices in the near term. (Link)
#general: Infosys threatened with payment cut over poor servicing of Corporate Affairs Ministry portal
India’s second largest software exporter has been asked to fix the glitches on the corporate affairs ministry portal over the coming weeks, at least three people with knowledge of the matter said, adding that the company risks losing out on full payment for the project.
The move comes amid mounting criticism for its handling of the portal. (Link)
#general: In Fact: Why sugarcane can’t be blamed for Marathwada drought woes
It is a convenient whipping boy, even though it consumes less water on a per-day basis than other crops, and even less for every unit weight of biomass produced. (Link)
#macronomics: The Fed’s Inflation Fail
Most central bankers would agree that their primary goal is to give people and companies confidence that inflation will remain stable over the long term. Unfortunately, the U.S. Federal Reserve may be failing at that task.
The Fed began pulling back on its efforts to stimulate growth back in May 2013, when then-Chairman Ben Bernanke said that the central bank would likely begin to reduce the bond-buying known as quantitative easing. The move indicated that Fed officials thought the inflation rate would gradually return to 2 percent over the next several years, a development that should maintain people’s inflation expectations at a similar level. (Link)
#general: Finance Ministry approves 8.7% interest on EPF for 2015-16: Bandaru Dattatreya
The Finance Ministry has approved 8.7 per cent interest on PF deposits for over 5 crore subscribers of retirement body EPFO, lower than 8.8 per cent decided by the Central Board of Trustees (CBT).
“The (EPFO’s apex decision-making body) CBT, at its meeting held in February 2016, has proposed an interim rate of interest at 8.8 per cent to be credited to the accounts of Employees’ Provident Fund subscribers for 2015-16. (Link)
#stocks: Parag Milk’s Rs 750-Crore IPO to Open On May 4
Dairy firm Parag Milk Foods will hit the capital markets on May 4 to raise an estimated Rs 750 crore through initial public offer (IPO).
The public issue comprises fresh issue of equity shares worth Rs 300 crore and an offer for sale of over 2 crore equity shares. (Link)
#general: Euphoria over, payment banks try to tackle tough questions over limited scope, stiff competition
There is already a growing buzz that a few players — of the eleven who got in-principle licences from RBI in August 2015 — having a relook at the viability prospects of PB even before launch. At least one company, Cholamandalam Investment & Finance Company, is said to have pressed the exit button, according to people familiar with the matter. (Link)
#general: Karti Chidambaram Holds Global Empire through Benamis
The New Indian Express has unearthed a devastating piece of evidence, which nails forever the lies of the father and son duo that Advantage Strategic Consulting Private Limited (Advantage), which has amassed huge wealth in India and in different countries, belongs not to them or their family, but to their friends. The new evidence proves that Advantage, which holds properties worth several
hundreds, perhaps even thousands, of crores, may be even more, in India and outside, belongs to the Chidambaram family but held in benami names.(Link)
#backtobasics:
How to Use Gann Indicators – Link
Marty Schwartz’s candid interview on trading, tactics and why he sells options Link
Open Interest, MaxPain & Put Call Ratio (PCR) – Link
Here is some Technical food. Thanks to Jagandeep Singh
• Last two corrections lasted four quarters. This one has currently lasted four quarters.
• The quarter or two after the correction ends, has seen at least a 25% move from the bottom and a max of 70% move off the bottom. A 25% move from 6890 would be 8620.
• There have been at least two +ve quarterly candles after all the bottoms and the uptrend has continued for at least 4 quarters after the bottom but more likely between 5-7 quarters
There are two models for the uptrend:
• A 2001 -2003 and 2012 – 2014 kind of consolidation which unleashed huge rallies of 800% and 100% from the bottoms.
• like 1993 and 2009 where NIFTY made a 100% return in 5-7 quarters.
Final Observation – The V-Shaped rallies have a Doji-bottom and the Consolidation rallies have a bullish engulfing / Haraami kind of bottom candles. This one seems like a V-Shaped Rally bottom, although, it a hammer bottom, which hasn’t really happened before.
Disclaimer
Nothing in this newsletter is financial advice and should not be construed as such. Please do not take trading decisions based solely on the matter above; if you do, it is entirely at your own risk without any liability to Capital Mind. This is educational or informational matter only, and is provided as an opinion.
Disclosure: The authors at Capital Mind have positions in the market and some of them may support or contradict the material given above, or may involve a direction derived from independent analysis.
