Official figures show October 2012 Inflation (based on Wholesale Prices) at 7.45%, slightly lower that September’s 7.81%.
The problem is that this data is likely to be revised substantially. August data, first announced at 7.55% has now been revised to +8.01% – the first 8% plus figure since November 2011.
So what seems to be 7.45% today may actually be 8% when revised.
The confidence decreases as we enter into component level checks:
While fuel inflation remains high, the fact that food inflation is coming down is suspect (especially after it was revised up nearly 1% to over 11% in August). Manufactured goods inflation seems to be stable, however consumer prices are more indicative of real inflation and that is nearly 10%.
