I haven’t checked a lot of stocks lately – and looking at GMR Infra’s price of Rs. 62 today shocked me. Let’s take a look at what happened to GMR Infra from the time it listed:
The IPO was available at 200, which translates to a price of Rs. 40 today (split 5 ways in between). My IPO analysis showed a past EPS then of Rs. 2.5 (which is equivalent to 0.5 today) and a P/E of, at the eventual price, 80.
Current Trailing EPS is around Rs. 1.25. Price is still at a 50 P/E and a lot of that EPS came from “other income” – the interest on the pile of cash they hold.
It will take another twenty rupees for this stock to reach the levels it listed at – which honestly is better than most other IPOs which are seriously under water already. Would you pick this stock up if it reached 40?
Airports, Power, Infrastructure. And a recession. Hmm. Not easy, when the stock has been about four times this price just a few months ago – but as we are likely to see, those valuations will be cherished as “those good days” for a long time to come.
I won’t do a funny-mental analysis. I will just say this – the price action shows the trend. Unless that changes, nothing has changed….
